Post by NFL on Dec 14, 2021 18:14:00 GMT -5
********** AFC **********
#1 Tennessee Titans (14-2) vs #6 Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Both teams look like they will be at close to full strength, which bodes well for this being a good rematch of last season's AFC Championship. Tennessee finished 3 games and 200+ points ahead of Baltimore in the final regular season standings but these two teams have been much closer over the second half of the season. Since week 7, Baltimore has outscored Tennessee by 30+ including a H2H win for the Ravens in week 8.
The Titans are far more likely to put up a big point total, though they have not hit 200 points since scoring at least 200 in five of their first six matchups. That was the last time they had a full lineup but have still hit 170 points in all but one game this season (Week 8 vs BAL).
Prediction: Give the Titans a slight edge with a full strength lineup, though Baltimore should still have a chance if they can push past the 185-190 they've been sitting around recently.
#2 New England Patriots (13-3) vs #4 Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
The Patriots are fresh off a huge wild card win, setting the playoff record for points in one matchup (251). New England had been very inconsistent dating back to week 6, but back to back 180 point weeks is similar to what we were seeing from them early in the season when they were top four in scoring through five weeks.
Over those same five weeks, the Chargers were 26th in scoring and it looked like their only chance of a playoff spot was winning the division title over three other very weak teams (all four teams were bottom 11 in scoring through 5 weeks). The race between Denver & Los Angeles ended up being surprisingly competitive and with the Chargers' win over Houston last week, that division title looks like it actually means something this year. Since week 10, Los Angeles has been top 10 in scoring and was within 100 points of New England over that same period.
Prediction: Patriots should be favored here after their record breaking win of Denver, but the Chargers are playing the best they have all season with a pair of top three scores over the last two weeks (195.09 & 181.76). Don't expect New England to push 250 again but if the Chargers can continue with this run then it should be a close matchup.
********** NFC **********
#1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15-1) vs #6 Chicago Bears (11-5)
Tampa Bay is THE team to beat. They've landed on the following Team Record lists this season: Single Season Points (#1), Regular Season PPG Average (#2), & Points in One Regular Season Matchup (#2). The Buccaneers scored 180 points every week but week 13, which resulted in their only loss.
We know the Bears have the personnel to hit that 180-200 range because they've proved it a few times this year. They have four games of 185+ but also have four games with fewer than 110. They showed up last week and got a win without a QB and two of their top IDPs so it's not impossible for Chicago to pull an upset.
Prediction: Realistically, anybody can win, though Tampa Bay should be heavily favored over Chicago. Through the first five weeks of the season (no byes), Tampa's worst week was 203.4 points in week one. No Derrick Henry and potentially no Lamar Jackson could make it tough to hit those numbers but if Tampa can reach 180, as they've done consistently, it's hard to see them losing this matchup. It will depend which version of the Bears shows up this week, though.
#2 Seattle Seahawks (15-1) vs #5 New Orleans Saints (12-4)
Seattle was not nearly as dominant as Tampa, but they were the clear #2 team in the league throughout the season and managed to find spots on all the same record lists as the Bucs. Seattle was inconsistent midseason but finished strong with 170 point weeks in each of their last 6 matchups. They have a entire lineup of questionable players but it didn't seem to affect them last week, as they were able to hit the 170 mark for a 7th consecutive week. Over this 7 week period, the Seahawks have outscored the Saints every single week.
New Orleans may be the lowest ceiling team remaining in the playoffs, as they've only broken 180 points three times and only once since week 4. That being said, New Orleans has faced bye weeks or injuries in every week since then but if Terry McLaurin can clear concussion protocol then the Saints will be at full strength for the first time since back to back 196 point outings in weeks 3 & 4. They haven't been the most consistent this season but the Saints have a chance to pull off an upset for the second consecutive week.
Prediction: If Seattle hits that 170 point floor then they've got a great chance at taking care of the Saints this week. Both teams have the ability to hit 190-200+ points so it may come down to how healthy the Seahawks can be on offense. And we should have a better idea of the trajectory of this matchup before the weekend, as Seattle has their top four offensive pieces playing on Thursday night.
#1 Tennessee Titans (14-2) vs #6 Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
- TEN Injuries/Covid: DeAndre Hopkins (Q)
- BAL Injuries/Covid: Mark Ingram (C), Tracy Walker (C), Leonard Williams (Q)
- BAL 2-1 vs TEN All Time (2-0 in regular season)
- Rematch of 2020 AFC Championship, Tennessee defeated Baltimore (207.49 - 155.07)
- Ravens beat Titans in Week 8 (184.6 - 137.61)
Both teams look like they will be at close to full strength, which bodes well for this being a good rematch of last season's AFC Championship. Tennessee finished 3 games and 200+ points ahead of Baltimore in the final regular season standings but these two teams have been much closer over the second half of the season. Since week 7, Baltimore has outscored Tennessee by 30+ including a H2H win for the Ravens in week 8.
The Titans are far more likely to put up a big point total, though they have not hit 200 points since scoring at least 200 in five of their first six matchups. That was the last time they had a full lineup but have still hit 170 points in all but one game this season (Week 8 vs BAL).
Prediction: Give the Titans a slight edge with a full strength lineup, though Baltimore should still have a chance if they can push past the 185-190 they've been sitting around recently.
#2 New England Patriots (13-3) vs #4 Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
- NE Injuries/Covid: James Conner (Q), Chris Jones (C)
- LAC Injuries/Covid: Justin Fields (Q), Quinnen Williams (Q), Kamu Grugier-Hill (C), Chidobie Awuzie (Q), Jevon Holland (C)
- Tied 1-1 All Time
- Chargers beat Patriots in Week 6 (134.51 - 118.95)
The Patriots are fresh off a huge wild card win, setting the playoff record for points in one matchup (251). New England had been very inconsistent dating back to week 6, but back to back 180 point weeks is similar to what we were seeing from them early in the season when they were top four in scoring through five weeks.
Over those same five weeks, the Chargers were 26th in scoring and it looked like their only chance of a playoff spot was winning the division title over three other very weak teams (all four teams were bottom 11 in scoring through 5 weeks). The race between Denver & Los Angeles ended up being surprisingly competitive and with the Chargers' win over Houston last week, that division title looks like it actually means something this year. Since week 10, Los Angeles has been top 10 in scoring and was within 100 points of New England over that same period.
Prediction: Patriots should be favored here after their record breaking win of Denver, but the Chargers are playing the best they have all season with a pair of top three scores over the last two weeks (195.09 & 181.76). Don't expect New England to push 250 again but if the Chargers can continue with this run then it should be a close matchup.
********** NFC **********
#1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15-1) vs #6 Chicago Bears (11-5)
- TB Injuries/Covid: Lamar Jackson (Q), Julian Okwara (Q), Jonathan Allen (C)
- CHI Injuries/Covid: Jaire Alexander (Q)
- TB 1-0 vs CHI All Time (week 8 this season)
- Buccaneers beat Bears in Week 8 (185.80 - 109.61)
Tampa Bay is THE team to beat. They've landed on the following Team Record lists this season: Single Season Points (#1), Regular Season PPG Average (#2), & Points in One Regular Season Matchup (#2). The Buccaneers scored 180 points every week but week 13, which resulted in their only loss.
We know the Bears have the personnel to hit that 180-200 range because they've proved it a few times this year. They have four games of 185+ but also have four games with fewer than 110. They showed up last week and got a win without a QB and two of their top IDPs so it's not impossible for Chicago to pull an upset.
Prediction: Realistically, anybody can win, though Tampa Bay should be heavily favored over Chicago. Through the first five weeks of the season (no byes), Tampa's worst week was 203.4 points in week one. No Derrick Henry and potentially no Lamar Jackson could make it tough to hit those numbers but if Tampa can reach 180, as they've done consistently, it's hard to see them losing this matchup. It will depend which version of the Bears shows up this week, though.
#2 Seattle Seahawks (15-1) vs #5 New Orleans Saints (12-4)
- SEA Injuries/Covid: Chase Edmonds (Q), Austin Ekeler (Q), Mike Williams (Q), Darren Waller (Q), JD McKissic (Q), Michael Carter (Q), Fred Warner (Q), Denzel Perryman (Q)
- NO Injuries/Covid: Terry McLaurin (Q), Ja'Whuan Bentley (Q)
- NO 2-0 vs SEA All Time (no matchups since 2019)
Seattle was not nearly as dominant as Tampa, but they were the clear #2 team in the league throughout the season and managed to find spots on all the same record lists as the Bucs. Seattle was inconsistent midseason but finished strong with 170 point weeks in each of their last 6 matchups. They have a entire lineup of questionable players but it didn't seem to affect them last week, as they were able to hit the 170 mark for a 7th consecutive week. Over this 7 week period, the Seahawks have outscored the Saints every single week.
New Orleans may be the lowest ceiling team remaining in the playoffs, as they've only broken 180 points three times and only once since week 4. That being said, New Orleans has faced bye weeks or injuries in every week since then but if Terry McLaurin can clear concussion protocol then the Saints will be at full strength for the first time since back to back 196 point outings in weeks 3 & 4. They haven't been the most consistent this season but the Saints have a chance to pull off an upset for the second consecutive week.
Prediction: If Seattle hits that 170 point floor then they've got a great chance at taking care of the Saints this week. Both teams have the ability to hit 190-200+ points so it may come down to how healthy the Seahawks can be on offense. And we should have a better idea of the trajectory of this matchup before the weekend, as Seattle has their top four offensive pieces playing on Thursday night.