Post by NFL on Dec 22, 2021 13:17:05 GMT -5
AFC Championship:
#1 Tennessee Titans (14-2) vs #2 New England Patriots (13-3)
Over the course of the regular season, Tennessee outscored New England by an average of 26.04 ppp -- which is a pretty sizable gap. It was actually a larger gap than the ones between the Patriots and the Bengals & Steelers, who both finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs. All that being said, New England has been the better team over the last five weeks, outscoring everyone but Seattle & Tampa Bay in that time. A massive 251 point wild card performance may be helping that ppg average, but it is a total that the Titans have not come close to reaching since week five (223 pts) & week six (225 points).
As mentioned last week, Tennessee's 200-225 point ceiling seems to have disappeared and it's hard to project them to rediscover that this week. Despite that, they stayed consistent in the divisional round, scoring 170 for the 13th time in 14 weeks. The Patriots' scoring output has been much more volatile, with their last four weeks being completely unpredictable (135 pts, 182 pts, 251 pts, 152 pts).
Prediction: If one team is going to blow out the other, it's very likely going to be Tennessee over New England. There is no reason to believe the Titans won't be able to hit their weekly 170 points, but they have not consistently shown that they can produce much more than that. If the Patriots can get just half of the guys to hit from two weeks ago, then they've got a shot to upset the Titans here. But if 75% of the offense duds like they did against Los Angeles, then it's hard to see New England winning in a low scoring matchup.
NFC Championship:
#1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15-1) vs #2 Seattle Seahawks (15-1)
No offense to the two AFC teams, that will be a good matchup as well, but this is the biggest matchup of the season. Tampa Bay & Seattle are undoubtedly 2 of the 3 best teams in league history (2019 Vikings) and it seemed destined that the two of them would match up in conference championship. Here are the records the two teams have set this season:
There's no question that Tampa Bay deserves the accolades, but the numbers can be a little misleading. The Buccaneers have been the better team over the course of the entire regular season, but since week 6, Seattle has actually been the highest scoring team in the league. Tampa Bay started strong with five weeks of 200+ points but have only hit that total twice over their last nine matchups. They've still managed 180 points in all but one game this season, though, giving them an incredibly high floor.
Seattle was not nearly as dominant as Tampa Bay through those first 5 weeks and they've been chasing the Bucs in points scored all season because of it. They started much more inconsistent through the first seven weeks, with three games of 225+ but also three games with fewer than 170 points. Since week 8, they've managed to score 170+ points every week and have actually outscored the Buccaneers by 89 points.
Prediction: Seattle looks like they have a slight edge, assuming they can keep Austin Ekeler & Tyreek Hill in the lineup this week. But if Tampa Bay can get the offense at full health (minus Derrick Henry) then there is a very real possibility that both of these teams score over 200 points. A low scoring matchup seems to favor Tampa Bay, but both teams have shown they are capable of putting up 250 when healthy.
#1 Tennessee Titans (14-2) vs #2 New England Patriots (13-3)
- Titans Injuries/Covid: Cole Beasley (C), Grant Delpit (C)
- Patriots Injuries/Covid: James Conner (Q), Mike Evans (Q), Jakeem Grant (Q), Chris Jones (C), Kendall Fuller (C)
- NE 2-1 vs TEN All Time (including 0-1 in playoffs)
- New England beat Tennessee during 2020 regular season; Tennessee knocked New England out of 2020 playoffs in divisional round
Over the course of the regular season, Tennessee outscored New England by an average of 26.04 ppp -- which is a pretty sizable gap. It was actually a larger gap than the ones between the Patriots and the Bengals & Steelers, who both finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs. All that being said, New England has been the better team over the last five weeks, outscoring everyone but Seattle & Tampa Bay in that time. A massive 251 point wild card performance may be helping that ppg average, but it is a total that the Titans have not come close to reaching since week five (223 pts) & week six (225 points).
As mentioned last week, Tennessee's 200-225 point ceiling seems to have disappeared and it's hard to project them to rediscover that this week. Despite that, they stayed consistent in the divisional round, scoring 170 for the 13th time in 14 weeks. The Patriots' scoring output has been much more volatile, with their last four weeks being completely unpredictable (135 pts, 182 pts, 251 pts, 152 pts).
Prediction: If one team is going to blow out the other, it's very likely going to be Tennessee over New England. There is no reason to believe the Titans won't be able to hit their weekly 170 points, but they have not consistently shown that they can produce much more than that. If the Patriots can get just half of the guys to hit from two weeks ago, then they've got a shot to upset the Titans here. But if 75% of the offense duds like they did against Los Angeles, then it's hard to see New England winning in a low scoring matchup.
NFC Championship:
#1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15-1) vs #2 Seattle Seahawks (15-1)
- Buccaneers Injuries/Covid: Lamar Jackson (Q), Antonio Brown (Q), Dre Greenlaw (Q), Eddie Jackson (C), Jonathan Abram (Q)
- Seahawks Injuries/Covid: Austin Ekeler (Q), Tyreek Hill (C), Darren Waller (Q), Derrick Brown (C), Denzel Perryman (Q)
- TB 1-0 vs SEA All Time (only matchup came in 2019)
No offense to the two AFC teams, that will be a good matchup as well, but this is the biggest matchup of the season. Tampa Bay & Seattle are undoubtedly 2 of the 3 best teams in league history (2019 Vikings) and it seemed destined that the two of them would match up in conference championship. Here are the records the two teams have set this season:
- Highest Regular Season PPG Average: TB (2nd - 208.9), SEA (3rd - 200.0)
- Most Points in One Regular Season: TB (1st - 3342.6), SEA (2nd - 3199.3)
- Most Points in One Regular Season Matchup: TB (1st - 262.9), SEA (4th - 251.9)
- Largest Single Season Win Increase: SEA (1st - 15), TB (T-4th - 7)
There's no question that Tampa Bay deserves the accolades, but the numbers can be a little misleading. The Buccaneers have been the better team over the course of the entire regular season, but since week 6, Seattle has actually been the highest scoring team in the league. Tampa Bay started strong with five weeks of 200+ points but have only hit that total twice over their last nine matchups. They've still managed 180 points in all but one game this season, though, giving them an incredibly high floor.
Seattle was not nearly as dominant as Tampa Bay through those first 5 weeks and they've been chasing the Bucs in points scored all season because of it. They started much more inconsistent through the first seven weeks, with three games of 225+ but also three games with fewer than 170 points. Since week 8, they've managed to score 170+ points every week and have actually outscored the Buccaneers by 89 points.
Prediction: Seattle looks like they have a slight edge, assuming they can keep Austin Ekeler & Tyreek Hill in the lineup this week. But if Tampa Bay can get the offense at full health (minus Derrick Henry) then there is a very real possibility that both of these teams score over 200 points. A low scoring matchup seems to favor Tampa Bay, but both teams have shown they are capable of putting up 250 when healthy.